The natural history of atrial fibrillation in patients with permanent pacemakers: is atrial fibrillation a progressive disease?

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is thought to be a progressive arrhythmia, starting with short paroxysmal episodes, until eventually, it becomes permanent. Evidence for this is limited to studies with short follow-up or with minimal cardiac rhythm monitoring. We utilised the continuous rhythm monitoring capabilities of implanted pacemakers to define better the natural history of AF. METHODS: The study included 356 patients with pacemaker devices capable of continuous atrial rhythm monitoring (186 male, mean age (± SD) 79.5 ± 8.9 years). All clinical records, including history/physical examination reports, laboratory results, ECGs and Holter monitoring data were reviewed. Patients were included if AF episodes >30 s were documented. Permanent pacemaker diagnostic data were reviewed at least every 12 months. ACC/AHA/ESC guidelines were used to define AF episodes as paroxysmal, persistent or long-standing persistent/permanent. RESULTS: Study follow-up period (± SD) was 7.2 ± 3.1 years. Over the study period, 179 of 356 patients (50.3 %) had at least one episode of persistent AF. Of the 356 patients, 314 (88.2 %) had paroxysmal AF and 42 (11.8 %) had persistent AF at the time of diagnosis. The predominant AF subtype, at latest follow-up, was paroxysmal for 192 patients (53.9 %), persistent for 77 (21.6 %) and long-standing persistent/permanent for 87 (24.4 %). Univariable predictors of progression to persistent AF were (1) male gender, (2) increasing left atrial diameter (LAD), (3) reduced atrial pacing (AP) and (4) increasing ventricular pacing. CONCLUSIONS: Although many patients with AF will have persistent episodes, long-term continuous pacemaker follow-up demonstrates that the majority will have a paroxysmal, as opposed to persistent, form of the arrhythmia.