Gallstone Pancreatitis and Choledocholithiasis: Using Imaging and Laboratory Trends to Predict the Likelihood of Persistent Stones at Cholangiography.

BACKGROUND: Patients with gallstone pancreatitis (GP) or choledocholithiasis (CDL) may have common bile duct (CBD) stones that persist until cholangiography. The aim of this study is to evaluate pre-cholangiogram factors that predict persistent CBD stones. METHODS: Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify demographic, laboratory, and radiologic predictors of persistent CBD stones and non-therapeutic cholangiography among adults with GP or CDL. RESULTS: In 152 patients from 2010 to 2015, preoperative diagnosis, presence of a CBD stone on US, and age ≥ 60 years were associated with persistent CBD stones. Two risk factors alone had a PPV of 88% and the absence of all risk factors had a NPV of 94%. Age < 60 years and the absence of a CBD stone on US were most predictive of non-therapeutic cholangiography. CONCLUSION: Age, LFTs, and US help predict persistent CBD stones in patients initially presenting with GP or CDL and help minimize non-therapeutic preoperative cholangiography.