Early Postoperative Weight Loss Predicts Weight Loss up to 5 Years After Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass, Banded Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass, and Sleeve Gastrectomy.

PURPOSE: Previous studies showed that patients with lower weight loss after bariatric surgery could be identified based on early postoperative weight loss. However, these studies had only 12-36-month follow-up. This study aimed to explore whether patients in the lowest weight loss quartile at 3 months had lower weight loss trajectories up to 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), banded Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (BRYGB), and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) surgery. METHODS: Weight was assessed preoperatively, and 3, 6, 9, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months postoperatively. Patients were grouped into four categories based on quartiles of percentage total weight loss (%TWL) at 3-month follow-up. Results were compared between the lowest %TWL quartile group and other quartile groups. RESULTS: Patients underwent either RYGB (n=13,106; 72%), SG (n=3585; 20%), or BRYGB (n=1391, 8%) surgery. Weight loss trajectories of patients in the lowest %TWL quartile group remained lower than that of other quartile groups throughout a 5-year follow-up, for all three types of surgery. Patients in the lowest %TWL quartile group had higher age at surgery, higher baseline BMI, and were more likely to be male (in the SG group), and to suffer from diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and osteoarthritis. CONCLUSION: This study showed a positive association between weight loss at 3 and 12 to 60 months after bariatric surgery. Weight loss at 3 months after surgery could be used to identify patients whose anticipated weight loss trajectories are below average, to potentially improve their outcomes through early behavioral or medical interventions.