Resisting-accepting-directing sea level rise on the Chesapeake Bay: Agricultural producers' motivations and actions.

As relative rates of sea level rise accelerate in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, the frequency of flooding and saltwater intrusion on coastal lands also increases, prompting ecological transformation which can conflict with existing coastal land use such as agriculture. We performed an exploratory study of coastal farmers and woodlot managers in Maryland and Virginia to understand how these producers make land management decisions within the context of sea level rise. Specifically, we used a mixed-methods approach to identify and understand 1) the producer-observed impacts of sea level rise and flooding on coastal lands; 2) the range of actions producers may take in response to sea level rise and flooding; 3) producers' intentions for managing their land in the short- and long-term; 4) producers' motivations for selecting a particular response; and 5) the additional support coastal producers need to successfully adapt to sea level rise. We used the Resist-Accept-Direct framework as an analytical tool to understand how producers' actions and motivations align with 1) prevention or removal of impacts from flooding and saltwater intrusion, 2) accommodation for wetter or saltier conditions as they naturally occur, or 3) facilitation of specific changes toward a new desired outcome. We found that while most producers in our study plan to resist or accept changes over the next five years, over the longer term a majority of participating producers plan to transition land to a use that is compatible with increased saltwater intrusion and flooding. Most producers in our study would prefer to continue farming yet face a lack of effective and/or affordable management options to resist ecological changes. Flexible mechanisms that support producers in resisting sea level rise impacts in the short term, while supporting them in directing the transition of their land to another productive use in the long term, are needed to support coastal farmers as they adapt to a changing climate.