Carbon emissions changes of animal husbandry in China: Trends, attributions, and solutions: A spatial shift-share analysis.

ABSTRACT

China is a major livestock producer confronting the dual challenges of rising demand for animal-based food consumption and decreasing carbon emissions. To effectively address these issues, it is crucial to understand the trends of carbon emissions from animal husbandry and the competitive advantages of carbon emission reduction in different regions. This study uses panel data from 31 provinces from 2004 to 2020 to investigate the contributing factors to carbon emissions and explore ways to reduce carbon intensity in animal husbandry. The analysis employs spatial shift-share analysis and the spatial Durbin model. Our findings indicate that life-cycle carbon emissions associated with animal husbandry in China decreased from 572.411 Mt CO2eq to 520.413 Mt CO2eq over time, with an average annual decline of 0.568 %. The annual contribution of output value and internal industry-mix adjustment to carbon emission growth is 22.639 MT CO2eq and 6.226 MT CO2eq, respectively. On the other hand, the annual contribution of carbon efficiency improvement to carbon emission reduction is much higher, at 36.316 MT CO2eq. However, there is significant regional heterogeneity in the spatial decomposition of the carbon efficiency change component. The Northeastern region, Northwest and along the Great Wall demonstrate neighborhood advantages in enhancing carbon efficiency. In contrast, the South China and Southwest regions rely more on local carbon efficiency advantages to reduce the carbon intensity of animal husbandry. Furthermore, the carbon intensity in local and neighboring areas can be reduced through environmental regulations and industrial agglomeration. While technical progress significantly negatively impacts carbon intensity in neighboring regions, it does not contribute to reducing the carbon intensity of local animal husbandry. The findings provide valuable insights for local governments, aiding them in recognizing the pros and cons of carbon reduction in animal husbandry and strengthening regional cooperation in emission reduction management.