Developing and Validating a Nomogram Model for Predicting Ischemic Stroke Risk.

ABSTRACT

Background and purpose: Clinically, the ability to identify individuals at risk of ischemic stroke remains limited. This study aimed to develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of acute ischemic stroke. Methods: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis on patients who visited the Department of Neurology, collecting important information including clinical records, demographic characteristics, and complete hematological tests. Participants were randomly divided into training and internal validation sets in a 73 ratio. Based on their diagnosis, patients were categorized as having or not having ischemic stroke (ischemic and non-ischemic stroke groups). Subsequently, in the training set, key predictive variables were identified through multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression methods, and a nomogram model was constructed accordingly. The model was then evaluated on the internal validation set and an independent external validation set through area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) analysis, a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to verify its predictive efficacy and clinical applicability. Results: Eight predictors were identified age, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, stroke history, white blood cell count, and vitamin B12 levels. Based on these factors, a nomogram with high predictive accuracy was constructed. The model demonstrated good predictive performance, with an AUC-ROC of 0.760 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.736-0.784). The AUC-ROC values for internal and external validation were 0.768 (95% CI 0.732-0.804) and 0.732 (95% CI 0.688-0.777), respectively, proving the model's capability to predict the risk of ischemic stroke effectively. Calibration and DCA confirmed its clinical value. Conclusions: We constructed a nomogram based on eight variables, effectively quantifying the risk of ischemic stroke.