Pathways of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Human Mobility across Countries

ABSTRACT

This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission worldwide through a spatial-temporal model with network dynamics. By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547,166 flights with a total capacity of 101,455,913 passengers among 22 countries during the past three months, we analyze the associations between international travel movement in six continents and the new infections in these countries. Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high transmission rates. Instead, they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to adjust the international movement restriction. The study highlights that international human mobility is the key to understand the transmission pathways and the small world phenomenon in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic.