Construction and validation of risk prediction model for constipation in patients with cerebral hemorrhage / 中国实用护理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the influencing factors of constipation in patients with cerebral hemorrhage, construct a risk prediction model, and verify the predictive effect of the model to scientifically guide subsequent treatment and nursing.Methods:A total of 254 patients with cerebral hemorrhage hospitalized in Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical Collegefrom May 2022 to November 2022 were selected in a prospective cohort study, and they were divided into constipation group ( n = 150) and non-constipation group ( n = 104) according to whether constipation occurred. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of constipation in patients with cerebral hemorrhage, and a risk prediction model was established and a nomogram was drawn. A total of 110 patients with cerebral hemorrhage hospitalized in the same hospital from December 2022 to March 2023 were selected as the validation group, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve were used to verify the model. Results:In this study, four risk factors of hospital stay, Koubmwater swallowing test score, nutrition and diuretics were finally included to construct a risk prediction model, and the area under the ROC curve of the modeling group was 0.918, the 95% CI was 0.848 to 0.963, the optimal cut-off value was 0.7225, the sensitivity was 0.885, and the specificity was 0.837. External verification results showed a sensitivity of 0.926 and specificity of 0.611. Conclusions:The risk prediction model constructed in this study has good effect and can provide reference for clinical assessment of whether patients with cerebral hemorrhage have the risk of constipation.