A nomogram model predicting futile recanalization in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy / 中华神经医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors for futile recanalization in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion after endovascular mechanical thrombectomy (EMT), and establish a nomogram model predicting futile recanalization in these patients.Methods:One hundred and eighty-eight patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion after EMT were enrolled from Department of Neurology, Zhongshan Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine from January 2018 to December 2021. Patients were divided into futile recanalization group and effective recanalization group according to whether futile recanalization occurred; futile recanalization was defined as successful recanalization showed by immediate postoperative DSA (modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction [mTICI] ≥2b), but poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores>2 90 d after surgery). The clinical data were compared between futile recanalization group and effective recanalization group. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for futile recanalization. R software was used to establish a nomogram model for futile recanalization. C-index was used to evaluate the differentiation of the model, and correction curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the line graph model prediction. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the nomogram model.Results:Ninety-two patients had futile recanalization. Compared with the effective recanalization group, futile recanalization group had significantly older age, significantly higher hemoglobin A1c on admission, significantly longer time from puncture to vascular recanalization, significantly higher proportions of patients with hypertension history and poor collateral circulation, and significantly different severities of stroke and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) and distribution of occlusive sites ( P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age, history of hypertension, time from puncture to vascular recanalization, poor collateral circulation, severe WMHs, and moderate-severe stroke were independent risk factors for futile recanalization after EMT in patients with acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion ( P<0.05). A nomogram model of futile recanalization was established according to the above 6 factors, with C-index of 0.862 ( 95%CI: 0.809-0.914); the calibration curve of the model was highly coordinated to the ideal model curve; area under the ROC curve of futile recanalization was 0.862 ( 95%CI: 0.809-0.914, P<0.001). Conclusions:Acute anterior circulation large vessel occlusion patients with older age, history of hypertension, longer time from puncture to vascular recanalization, poor collateral circulation, severe WMHs, and moderate-severe stroke trend to have futile recanalization after EMT. This nomogram can predict futile recanalization after EMT.