Study on time-space clustering regarding the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Kashgar Re-gion,Xinjiang / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To probe time-space clustering on the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Kashgar Region.Methods Based on the geographic information system,a Poisson model of time-space statistical software was applied to analyze data over the past 11 years in the Kashgar Region.Zones with clustering phenomenon were conformed by geographic location and remote sensing images.Results There existed three high risk clustering zones and corresponding time frames of VL in Kashgar Region.The center location of zone A was located in E 76.08°,N 39.52°,with radius as 6.58 km.The high risk time frame was from January 1st of 1999 to December 31st of 2003.Within the zone and time frame,the relative risk (RR) of VL incidence was 45.98 times higher than those outside the scope (P＜0.0001).Zone B's center location was at E 79.20°,N 39.91°,with the radius as 4.93 km.Its high risk time frame was from January 1st of 2002 to December 31st of 2006.Within the zone and time frame,the RR of VL incidence was 9.58 times higher than those outside of the scope (P＜0.0001).Zone C's center location was in E 76.23°,N 39.40°,and the radius was 7.63 km,with the high risk time frame from January 1st of 2000 to December 31st of 2004.Within the zone and time frame,the RR of VL incidence was 5.18 times higher than the one from outside of the scope (P＜0.0001).Conclusion The incidence of VL in Kashgar Region was non-randomly distributed while there existed obvious time-space clustering,with all of three high risk clustering zones located in oasis area where appeared the focus area for control and surveillance of VL.