Development and validation of a predictive model for the risk of positive after transperineal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy / 中华泌尿外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To develop a nomogram to predict the probability of prostate cancer after transeperineal prostate biopsy, and verify the diagnostic efficacy and clinical applicable value of the model.Methods:The clinicopathologic data of 475 patients who underwent prostate biopsy at Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College between January 2019 to August 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Of all the patients, 367 patients from January 2019 to December 2020 were in the development cohort and 108 patients from January 2021 to August 2021 were in the validation cohort. Patients in the development cohort were (68.86±9.00) years old. The tPSA level was 13.6(8.6, 23.3)ng/ml, and Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score was 4(3, 4) points. Patients in the validation cohort were (68.89±8.67) years old. The tPSA was 13.1(8.7, 25.6)ng/ml, and PI-RADS score was 4 (3, 5) points. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze prostate cancer risk factors in the development cohort. Then the nomogram prediction model was established by the risk factors. The prediction model's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration maps, and decision curve (DCA) analysis in the development cohort. The performance of the model was verified in the validation cohort.Results:The pathological results showed 180 patients with prostate cancer and 187 patients without prostate cancer in the development cohort. The validation cohort included 53 patients with and 55 without prostate cancer. Based on the results of the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, this model incorporates factors including age ( OR=1.059, P=0.003), platelet-to-monocyte ratio (PMR) ( OR=0.002, P=0.011), f/tPSA ( OR=0.009, P=0.020), and PI-RADS score ( OR= 3.076, P<0.001). The calibration curve revealed a great agreement. Internal validation of the nomogram showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.845 (95% CI 0.794-0.895). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was also performed( χ2=1.476, P=0.224). The validation group with an area under the ROC curve was 0.869 (95% CI 0.797-0.941). The results of the decision curve analysis indicated that the decision curve was located above the positive and negative lines in the threshold range of 10% to 90%, within which the model has clinical application. Conclusions:The nomogram, which combines patient age, PMR, f/t PSA, and PI-RADS scores, has high predictive efficacy for prostate cancer and has clinical application value.