Predictive factors for the diagnosis of permanent congenital hypothyroidism and its temporal changes in Sergipe, Brazil - A real-life retrospective study

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Objectives: Congenital hypothyroidism (CH) can be permanent (PCH) or transient (TCH). While the importance of thyroxine in myelination of the brain is undisputed, the benefits to neurodevelopmental outcomes of TCH treatment are controversial. Our objectives were to determine predictive factors for PCH and verify its prevalence changes over time. Subjects and methods: A total of 165 children were evaluated at 3 years of age to verify the diagnosis of PCH. 130 were submitted to a two-step cluster analysis, with the aim of grouping them into homogeneous clusters. The mean incidence of PCH and TCH was calculated from 2004 to 2010 and 2011 to 2015. Results: Sixty-six children were diagnosed with PCH, and 99 were diagnosed with TCH. Eighty-one percent of PCH children and all TCH children with thyroid imaging had glands in situ. Eighty children (61.5%) were in Cluster 1, 8 children (6.2%) were in Cluster 2 and 42 children (32.3%) were in Cluster 3. No children had PCH in Cluster 1, while 87.5% of children in Cluster 2 and all children in Cluster 3 had PCH. The most important predictor for PCH was the initial serum TSH, which was marginally higher in importance than the blood spot TSH, followed by the initial serum free T4. The mean incidence of PCH (odds ratio 1.95, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.95, p < 0.0001) and TCH (odds ratio 1.33, 95%, CI 1.02 to 1.77, p = 0,038) increased over time. Conclusions: The most important PCH predictors are the initial serum TSH and the blood spot TSH. The mean incidence of both PCH and TCH in our series increased.