Climatic variables associated with dengue incidence in a city of the Western Brazilian Amazon region
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
; 52: e20180429, 2019. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-985154
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue fever in the city of Rio Branco, Brazil.METHODS:
The association between the monthly incidence of dengue fever and climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and the Acre River level was evaluated, using generalized autoregressive moving average models with negative binomial distribution. Multiple no-lag, 1-month lag, and 2-month lag models were tested.RESULTS:
The no-lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was associated with the monthly averages of the Acre River level (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.17), compensated temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.22-1.95), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.68; 95% CI 0.58-0.81). The 1-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the monthly averages of total precipitation (IRR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.39), minimum temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.24-1.91), compensated relative humidity (IRR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.99), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.97). The 2-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the number of days with precipitation (IRR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.06) and maximum temperature (IRR 1.23; 95% CI 1.05-1.44).CONCLUSIONS:
Considering the impact of global climate change on the region, these findings can help to predict trends in dengue fever incidence.
Texto completo:
Disponível
Coleções:
Bases de dados internacionais
Contexto em Saúde:
Doenças Negligenciadas
Problema de saúde:
Dengue
/
Doenças Negligenciadas
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Dengue
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo de incidência
/
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
Limite:
Adolescente
/
Adulto
/
Idoso
/
Idoso, 80 anos ou mais
/
Criança
/
Criança, pré-escolar
/
Feminino
/
Humanos
/
Lactente
/
Masculino
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Assunto da revista:
Medicina Tropical
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
Brasil
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Universidade Federal do Paraná/BR
/
Universidade de São Paulo/BR