A comparison of statistical methods to predict the residual lifetime risk.
Eur J Epidemiol
; 37(2): 173-194, 2022 Feb.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34978669
Lifetime risk measures the cumulative risk for developing a disease over one's lifespan. Modeling the lifetime risk must account for left truncation, the competing risk of death, and inference at a fixed age. In addition, statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk should account for covariate-outcome associations that change with age. In this paper, we review and compare statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk. We first consider a generalized linear model for the lifetime risk using pseudo-observations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator at a fixed age, allowing for left truncation. We also consider modeling the subdistribution hazard with Fine-Gray and Royston-Parmar flexible parametric models in left truncated data with time-covariate interactions, and using these models to predict lifetime risk. In simulation studies, we found the pseudo-observation approach had the least bias, particularly in settings with crossing or converging cumulative incidence curves. We illustrate our method by modeling the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study. We provide technical guidance to replicate all analyses in R.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Fibrilação Atrial
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Eur J Epidemiol
Assunto da revista:
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos
País de publicação:
Holanda