Pushing the boundaries: actual and potential distribution of thrushes expanding their ranges in South America.

ABSTRACT

The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.