Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram to predict 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with CRO infection treated with colistin sulfate.

ABSTRACT

Background: Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative organism (CRO) infection is a critical clinical disease with high mortality rates. The 30-day mortality rate following antibiotic treatment serves as a benchmark for assessing the quality of care. Colistin sulfate is currently considered the last resort therapy against infections caused by CRO. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of reliable tools for personalized prognosis of CRO infections. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with CRO infection who underwent colistin sulfate treatment. Methods: A prediction model was developed and preliminarily validated using CRO-infected patients treated with colistin sulfate at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, who were hospitalized between May 2018 and May 2023, forming the study cohort. Patients admitted to Xianning Central Hospital in Xianning, China, between May 2018 and May 2023 were considered for external validation. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors and establish a nomogram to predict the occurrence of 30-day all-cause mortality. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to evaluate model performance. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the model clinical utility. Results: A total of 170 patients in the study cohort and 65 patients in the external validation cohort were included. Factors such as age, duration of combination therapy, nasogastric tube placement, history of previous surgery, presence of polymicrobial infections, and occurrence of septic shock were independently associated with 30-day all-cause mortality and were used to construct the nomogram. The AUC of the nomogram constructed from the above six factors was 0.888 in the training set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the model was a good fit (p = 0.944). The calibration curve of the nomogram was close to the ideal diagonal line. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis demonstrated significantly better net benefit in the model. The external validation proved the reliability of the prediction nomogram. Conclusion: A nomogram was developed and validated to predict the occurrence of 30-day all-cause mortality in patients with CRO infection treated with colistin sulfate. This nomogram offers healthcare providers a precise and efficient means for early prediction, treatment management, and patient notification in cases of CRO infection treated with colistin sulfate.