Development and application of a WebGIS-based prediction system for multi-criteria decision analysis of porcine pasteurellosis.

ABSTRACT

Porcine pasteurellosis is an infectious disease caused by Pasteurella multocida (P. multocida), which seriously endangers the healthy development of pig breeding industry. Early detection of disease transmission in animals is a crucial early warning for humans. Therefore, predicting risk areas for disease is essential for public health authorities to adopt preventive measures and control strategies against diseases. In this study, we developed a predictive model based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and assessed risk areas for porcine pasteurellosis in the Chinese mainland. By using principal component analysis, the weights of seven spatial risk factors were determined. Fuzzy membership function was used to standardize all risk factors, and weight linear combination was used to create a risk map. The sensitivity of the risk map was analyzed by calculating the mean of absolute change rates of risk factors, as well as calculating an uncertainty map. The results showed that risk areas for porcine pasteurellosis were predicted to be locate in the south-central of the Chinese mainland, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangdong, and Guangxi. The maximum standard deviation of the uncertain map was less than 0.01and the ROC results showed that the prediction model has moderate predictive performance with the area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.84). Based on the above process, MCDA was combined with WebGIS technology to construct a system for predicting risk areas of porcine pasteurellosis. Risk factor data was directly linked to the developed model, providing decision support for disease prevention and control through monthly updates.