Uncertainty in the number of contributor estimation methods applied to a Y-STR profile.

ABSTRACT

Maximum allele count (MAC) and total allele count (TAC) methods are widely used for estimating the number of contributors (NoC) of autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) profile in many forensic laboratories. In this study, we applied NoC estimation methods to mixed Y-STR profiles and evaluated its uncertainty and performance. For the MAC method, as recent Y-STR typing kits involve single- and multi-copy loci, we defined "MAC-single" for use across only single-copy loci and "MAC-multi" for use across only multi-copy loci. We generated a dataset containing 120,000 Y-STR profiles for a one to six-person mixture in silico based on previously reported haplotype frequencies of 27 Y-STR loci in Yfiler Plus for the U.S. population (reported by NIST) and the Henan Han population. The dataset was randomly split into a training set and a test set. The training set was used to construct a TAC distribution (TAC curve), whereas the test set was used to calculate the performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score). In addition, the effect of the upper limit of NoC considered for estimation on overall accuracy was evaluated. The overall accuracies of MAC-single, MAC-multi, and TAC methods when the upper limit of NoC was set to six-person were 0.7920, 0.4329, and 0.7877 for the U.S. population and 0.8207, 0.4609, and 0.8385 for the Henan Han population. Our results suggest that the MAC-single and TAC methods can estimate the NoC for mixed Y-STR profiles with high levels of accuracy.