Health workforce forecast in the university hospital: evidence from Lithuania.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The increasing shortage of staff in healthcare facilities worldwide calls for a human resource planning strategy in order to ensure safe, timely and patient-centred care. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis and supply and demand projections of nurses, midwives, and radiographers within the labor market of the largest university hospital in the Baltic States by 2030. METHODS: The staff supply was calculated on the intake and outflow of persons in the labour market annually for various factors. Projections for the demand of nurses, midwives, and radiographers took into account the different needs of the population, categorized by gender and age, for the services offered within the institution. RESULTS: The analysis highlights significant projected shortages in the supply of nurses and radiographers by 2030, while the supply of midwives is expected to meet the demand. The projected supply of nurses in 2030 will be lower than in 2021. Projected nurses demand in 2025 according medium scenario - shortage of 59 nurses, on prospective scenario - of 331 nurses. In 2030 according medium scenario - shortage of 173 nurses on prospective - of 772 nurses. The projected supply of radiographers in 2030 will be higher than in 2021. Projected radiographers demand in prospective scenario which is the most likely in 2025 - shortage of 26 and in 2030 - shortage of 52 radiographers. The projected supply of midwives in 2030 will be higher than in 2021. The variables influencing the increase in the demand for midwives did not exceed the projected supply in the institution, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario for midwives. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the rising demand for nurse and radiographer services from the aging population, the predicted supply of nurses and radiographers will be insufficient. To ensure the projected demand for nurses in the medium and prospective scenarios, the nurses recruited each year should increase up to 38% in the medium scenario and 69% in the prospective scenario from 2022. In the prospective demand scenario, the recruitment of radiographers should increase three-fold and the recruitment of midwives should be reduced by 30%.