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A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
Tianmu Chen; Jia Rui; Qiupeng Wang; Zeyu Zhao; Jing-An Cui; Ling Yin.
Afiliação
  • Tianmu Chen; Xiamen University
  • Jia Rui; Xiamen University
  • Qiupeng Wang; Xiamen University
  • Zeyu Zhao; Xiamen University
  • Jing-An Cui; Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
  • Ling Yin; Chinese Academy of Sciences
Preprint em Inglês | bioRxiv | ID: ppbiorxiv-911669
ABSTRACT
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.
Licença
cc_by_nc_nd
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: bioRxiv Tipo de estudo: Estudo de etiologia Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: bioRxiv Tipo de estudo: Estudo de etiologia Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
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