Facemask shortage and the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures

ABSTRACT

BackgroundTo analyse the impact of the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP) outbreak on the facemask shortage in China and provide insight into the development of emergency plans for future infectious disease outbreaks. MethodsPolicy review using government websites and shortage analysis using mathematical modelling based on data obtained from the National Health Commission (NHC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the Peoples Republic of China. FindingsSupplies of facemasks in the whole of China would have been sufficient for both the healthcare workers and the general population if the NCP outbreak only occurred in Hubei province. However, if the outbreak occurred in both Hubei and Guangdong provinces, facemask supplies in the whole of China could last for 34 days if no alternative public health intervention was introduced. There would be a shortage of 480 million facemasks by mid-February 2020. If the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, facemask supplies could only last for 16 days and the shortage would considerably worsen, with a shortage of 11{middle dot}5 billion facemasks by mid-February 2020. InterpretationIn light of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, insufficient medical resources (e.g., shortage of facemasks) can considerably compromise the efficacy of public health measures. An effective public health intervention should also consider the adequacy and affordability of existing medical resources. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.