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Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Thibaut Jombart; Kevin van Zandvoort; Tim Russell; Christopher Jarvis; Amy Gimma; Sam Abbott; Samuel Clifford; Sebastian Funk; Hamish Gibbs; Yang Liu; Carl Pearson; Nikos Bosse; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group; Rosalind M Eggo; Adam J Kucharski; John Edmunds.
Afiliação
  • Thibaut Jombart; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
  • Kevin van Zandvoort; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Tim Russell; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Christopher Jarvis; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Amy Gimma; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Sam Abbott; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Samuel Clifford; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Sebastian Funk; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • Hamish Gibbs; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Yang Liu; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Carl Pearson; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Nikos Bosse; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group;
  • Rosalind M Eggo; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • Adam J Kucharski; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
  • John Edmunds; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Preprint em Inglês | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20033761
Artigo de periódico
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ABSTRACT
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
Licença
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Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
Texto completo: Disponível Coleções: Preprints Base de dados: medRxiv Idioma: Inglês Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Preprint
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