The effect of a national lockdown in response to COVID-19 pandemic on the prevalence of clinical symptoms in the population

ABSTRACT

The vast and rapid spread of COVID-19 calls for immediate action from policy-makers, and indeed, many countries have implemented lockdown measures to varying degrees. Here, we utilized nationwide surveys that assess COVID-19 associated symptoms to analyse the effect of the lockdown policy in Israel on the prevalence of clinical symptoms in the population. Daily symptom surveys were distributed online and included questions regarding fever, respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, anosmia and ageusia. A total of 2,071,349 survey responses were analysed. We defined a single measure of symptoms, Symptoms Average (SA), as the mean number of symptoms reported by responders. Data were collected between March 15th to June 3rd, 2020. Notably, on the population level, following severe lockdown measures between March 15 th and April 20th, SA sharply declined by 83.8% (p < 0.05), as did every single symptom, including the most common symptoms reported by our responders, cough and rhinorrhea and\or nasal congestion, which decreased by 74.1% (p < 0.05) and 69.6% (p < 0.05), respectively. Similarly, on the individual level, analysis of repeated responses from the same individuals (N = 208,637) over time also showed a decrease in symptoms during this time period. Moreover, the reduction in symptoms was observed in all cities in Israel, and in several stratifications of demographic characteristics. Different symptoms exhibit different reduction dynamics, suggesting differences in the nature of the symptoms or in the underlying medical conditions. Between May 13th and June 3rd, following several subsequent lockdown relief measures, we observed an increase in individual symptoms and in SA, which increased by 31.42%. Overall, these results demonstrate a profound decrease in a variety of clinical symptoms following the implementation of a lockdown in Israel, and an increase in the prevalence of symptoms following the loosening of lockdown restrictions. As our survey symptoms are not specific to COVID-19 infection, this effect likely represents an overall nationwide reduction in the prevalence of infectious diseases, including COVID-19. This quantification may be of major interest for COVID-19 pandemic, as many countries consider implementation of lockdown strategies.