Easing social distancing index after COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

ContextEasing social distancing (ESD) is a global public health issue in post-pandemic period of COVID-19 and requires a simple index for real time assessment. ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a simple index for ESD to quantify the impacts of social distancing for reducing confirmed infected cases, optimal triage and care of patients for recovery, and critical care capacity for reducing death from COVID-19. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsData on the retrospective cohort of 185 countries with reported numbers on confirmed cases, recovery, and death from COVID-19 were retrieved from publicity available repository. Up to May 31, a total of 5,844,136 confirmed cases, 2,639,961 recovered, and 327,487 deaths were reported globally. Main Outcome MeasuresThe ESD index measured by cumulative number of COVID-19 cases and recovery and case-fatality rate. ResultsWe developed a simple index for the guidance of easing social distancing (ESD). If the ESD index is less than 1, ESD would be considered. The global ESD index declined from 3.87 at peak in March to 1.35 by the end of May, consisting of 56.76% countries/regions (105/185) with the ESD lower than one. Conclusion and RelevanceThis simple ESD index provides a quantitative assessment on whether and when to ease social distancing from local to global community.