Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: socioeconomic factors and mobility

ABSTRACT

New York City has been one of the hotspots of the COVID-19 pandemic and during the first two months of the outbreak considerable variability in case positivity was observed across the citys ZIP codes. In this study, we examined a) the extent to which the variability in ZIP code level cases can be explained by aggregate markers of socioeconomic status and daily change in mobility; and b) the extent to which daily change in mobility independently predicts case positivity. Our analysis indicates that the markers considered together explained 56% of the variability in case positivity through April 1 and their explanatory power decreased to 18% by April 30. Our analysis also indicates that changes in mobility during this time period are not likely to be acting as a mediator of the relationship between ZIP-level SES and case positivity. During the middle of April, increases in mobility were independently associated with decreased case positivity. Together, these findings present evidence that heterogeneity in COVID-19 case positivity during the New York City spring outbreak was largely driven by residents socioeconomic status.