Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US life expectancy for the Black and Latino populations

ABSTRACT

The Black and Latino populations have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and risk of death for those infected. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, as of July 4, 2020, deaths to Black and Latino individuals comprised 23% and 17%, respectively, of the approximately 115,000 COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 mortality is likely to result in a larger decline in life expectancy during 2020 than the US has experienced for decades as well as a particularly large reduction for Black and Latino individuals. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020, by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths - one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our most likely estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy at birth greater than 1.5 years for both the Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would imply that the Black-white gap would increase by 30%, from 3.6 to 4.7 years, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2008 and reversing an overall trend of steeper mortality declines among the Black population since the early 1990s. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their survival advantage decline by 36%, equivalent to its magnitude in 2006.