Projecting the second outbreaks for global COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is now in an epidemic phase, with a second outbreak likely to appear at any time. The intensity and timing of a second outbreak is a common concern worldwide. In this study, we made scenario projections of the potential second outbreak of COVID-19 using a statistical-epidemiology model, which considers both the impact of seasonal changes in meteorological elements and human social behaviors such as protests and city unblocking. Recent street protests in the United States and other countries are identified as a hidden trigger and amplifier of the second outbreak. The scale and intensity of subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S. cities where the epidemic is under initial control are projected to be much greater than those of the first outbreak. For countries without reported protests, lifting the COVID-19 related restrictions prematurely would accelerate the spread of the disease and place mounting pressure on the local medical system that is already overloaded. We anticipate these projections will support public health planning and policymaking by governments and international organizations.