Simple Accurate Regression-Based Forecasting of Intensive Care Unit Admissions due to COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada

ABSTRACT

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has proven challenging clinically, and at the population level, due to heterogeneity in both transmissibility and severity. Recent case incidence in Ontario, Canada (autumn 2020) has outstripped incidence in seen during the first (spring) pandemic wave; but has been associated with a lower incidence of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths. We hypothesized that differential ICU burden might be explained by increased testing volumes, as well as the shift in mean case age from older to younger. We constructed a negative binomial regression model using only three covariates, at a 2-week lag log10(weekly cases); log10(weekly deaths); and mean weekly case age. This model reproduced observed ICU admission volumes, and demonstrated good preliminary predictive validity. Furthermore, when admissions were used in combination with ICU length of stay, our modeled estimates demonstrated excellent convergent validity with ICU occupancy data reported by the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Our approach needs external validation in other settings and at larger and smaller geographic scales, but appears to be a useful short-term forecasting tool for ICU resource demand; we also demonstrate that the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 infection has not meaningfully changed in Ontario between the first and second waves, but the demographics of those infected, and the fraction of cases identified, have.