Using high effective risk of Adult-Senior duo in multigenerational homes to prioritize COVID-19 vaccination

ABSTRACT

Universal vaccination on an urgent basis is a way of controlling the COVID-19 infections and deaths. Shortages of vaccine supplies and practical deployment rates on the field necessitate prioritization. The global strategy has been to prioritize those with a high personal risk due to their age or comorbidities and those who constitute the essential workforce of the society. Rather than a systematic age-based roll-down, assigning the next priority requires a local strategy based on the vaccine availability, the effectiveness of these specific vaccines, the population size as well as its age-demographics, the scenario of how the pandemic is likely to develop. The Adult (ages 20-60) - Senior (ages over 60) duo from a multigenerational home presents a high-risk demographic, with an estimated "effective age" of an adult living with a grandparent that is not vaccinated to be 40 years more. Our model suggests that strategically vaccinating the Adults from multigenerational homes in India may be effective in saving the lives of around 70,000 to 200,000 of Seniors, under the different epidemiological scenarios possible with or without strict lockdowns.