Development and Verification of a Surgical Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Cervical Cancer:Based on a Real World Cohort Study / 实用妇产科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To develop and verify a nomogram to predict disease-free survival(DFS)and overall survival(OS)for patients undergoing cervical cancer surgery,which may provide reference for evaluating the prognosis of cervical cancer patients undergoing surgery.Methods:The clinical,pathological and follow-up data of patients who underwent radical operation for cervical cancer in Xijing Hospital,Air Force Medical University from March 2013 to October 2018 were analyzed retrospectively.Based on Cox regression analysis,Bayesian Informa-tion Criterion(BIC)backward stepwise selection method and R square screening variables,Net Reclassification Index(NRI)and Integrated Discrimination Improvement(IDI)were used to compare the predictive efficiency of the model,and a nomogram with better predictive efficiency was selected.The consistency index(C-index)and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)were used to test the efficiency of the nomogram.Results:A total of 950 patients with cervical cancer were enrolled in this study.The risk factors for constructing the DFS nomogram were FIGO stage(2018),parametrium invasion,invasion depth,and maximum tumor diameter.The C-index for DFS in the training cohort and the verification cohort were 0.754 and 0.720,respectively.The area under ROC of the training cohort for 1-,3-and 5-years was 0.74(95%CI 0.65-0.82),0.77(95%CI 0.71-0.83)and 0.79(95%CI0.74-0.85),and the areas under ROC of verification cohort 1-,3-and 5-years were 0.72(95%CI 0.58-0.87),0.75(95%CI 0.64-0.86)and 0.72(95%CI 0.61-0.84),respectively.The risk factors for con-structing the OS nomogram were FIGO stage(2018),histological type,LVSI,parametrium invasion,surgical mar-gin,and invasion depth.The C-index for OS in the training cohort and the verification cohort were 0.737 and 0.759,respectively.The area under ROC of the 3-and 5-year training cohort were 0.76(95%CI 0.69-0.83)and 0.78(95%CI 0.72-0.84),and the areas under ROC of verification cohort 3-and 5-years were 0.76(95%CI 0.65-0.87)and 0.79(95%CI 0.69-0.88),respectively.Conclusions:This study is based on real-world big data to construct nomogram of DFS for 1,3,and 5 years and OS for 3,and 5 years for cervical cancer,which have ideal predictive effects and help clinical physicians correctly evaluate the prognosis of cervical cancer surgery patients.It provides strong reference basis for diagnosis,treatment,and prognosis evaluation.