Systematic evaluation of a predictive model for the risk of developing ICU-acquired dysphagia in critically ill patients / 中国实用护理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To systematically evaluate the risk prediction model of ICU-acquired dysphagia in critically ill patients, and to provide a reference basis for medical practitioners to select or develop suitable risk assessment tools.Methods:Cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and cohort studies of ICU-acquired dysphagia risk prediction models were searched in eight databases, including Wanfang database, China Biomedical Literature Database, VIP database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library in both English and Chinese, and the search timeframe was from the construction of the database to July 5th, 2023. and the search was limited to Chinese and English. Literature was independently screened and data were extracted by 2 investigators, and the risk of bias assessment tool for predictive modeling studies was applied to analyze the risk of bias and applicability of the included literature.Results:A total of 8 high-quality papers were included, including 8 predictive models of risk of ICU-acquired dysphagia. The area under the subject operating characteristic curve for the models ranged from 0.750 to 0.980, with 6 models reporting calibration and 2 models having a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05, indicating good agreement. 2 models were externally validated. Independent predictors reported repeatedly for multivariate models were age ≥ 65 years, chronic lung disease, cerebrovascular disease, comorbid arrhythmias, use of sedative medications and duration of use, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ score ≥ 15, presence of a nasogastric tube, duration of indwelling gastric tube ≥ 72 h, and duration of endotracheal intubation ≥ 72 h. Smaller sample sizes (outcome events), insufficient attention to missing data, variable screening processes irrationality, and model overfitting increased the risk of model bias. Conclusions:The included models showed overall good discrimination and applicability, but their risk of bias was high, and external validation was carried out in only a very few studies. Future studies should refer to transparent reports of multivariate predictive models to develop, update, and validate the models to obtain high-quality predictive models of the risk of ICU-acquired dysphagia, which can provide a reference basis for the development of relevant preventive strategies.