The value of risk stratification of nomogram for post-mastectomy radiotherapy in patients with pT 1-2N 1M 0 breast cancer / 中华放射肿瘤学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the high-risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with pT 1-2N 1M 0 after mastectomy, establish a nomogram prediction model, perform risk stratification, and screen the radiotherapy benefit populations. Methods:Clinical data of 936 patients with pT 1-2N 1M 0 breast cancer undergoing mastectomy in the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2010 to December 2016 were retrospectively analyzed and 908 cases had complete follow-up data. They were divided into the radiotherapy (RT) group ( n=583) and non radiotherapy (NRT) group ( n=325) according to the radiotherapy. After propensity score matching (PSM) was performed 1 vs. 1, 298 cases were assigned into the RT group and 298 in the NRT group. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were compared between two groups using log-rank test. Nomogram prediction model was established, the survival differences were compared among different risk groups, and the radiotherapy benefit populations were screened. Results:Univariate analysis showed that the 5- and 8-year OS and DFS in the RT group were significantly better than those in the NRT group (both P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age, tumor quadrant, number of lymph node metastases, T staging, and Ki-67 level were the independent prognostic factors for OS. Age, tumor quadrant, and T staging were the independent prognostic factors for DFS. The OS nomogram analysis showed that the OS of patients in the high-risk group was significantly improved by post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) ( P=0.001), while PMRT did not show an advantage in the low- and medium-risk groups ( P=0.057, P=0.099). The DFS nomogram analysis showed that DFS was significantly improved by PMRT in patients in the medium- and high-risk groups ( P=0.036, P=0.001), whereas the benefits from PMRT were not significant in the low-risk group ( P=0.475). Conclusions:For patients with pT 1-2N 1M 0 breast cancer after mastectomy, age ≤ 40 years, tumor located in the inner quadrant or central area, T 2 staging, 2-3 lymph node metastases, Ki-67>30% are the high-risk factors affecting clinical prognosis. The nomogram prediction model can screen the populations that can benefit from PMRT, providing reference for clinical decision-making.