Estimation of Individualized Probabilities of Developing Breast Cancer for Korean Women

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Based on the results of the relative risk model of Korean breast cancer, the aim of this study was to develop a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool which would display the absolute breast cancer risks of Korean women. METHODS: The tool was developed in the three steps: selection of risk factors and relative risks, calculation of baseline breast cancer incidences, and estimation of absolute breast cancer risks. The risk factors used in this tool were age, family history of first- and second-degree relatives, body mass index, age at first delivery, history of breast-feeding, and a special test on the breasts. A program was developed in an HTML file, which was used for input of the risk factors, and a CGI file, which was used to calculate the risk and display the results. RESULTS: The program was stored in the Internet web page, http//home.dankook.ac.kr/breast/brca/brca.htm. After receiving an input of risk factors, the program was able to calculate the relative risk compared to all the age groups, the estimated absolute risks following 5 and 10 years, and the estimated absolute risks up to ages 64 and 74 years. The estimated risks of Korean women using this tool were less than those reported by the NCI risk assessment tool. The risk of breast cancer was highest in the fifth decade. CONCLUSION: In this study, we developed a web page containing a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool. This program may be useful for the assessment of individual breast cancer risks, the selection of screening tools, and the evaluation of preventive options for risk reduction.