Analysis of the epidemiologic patterns of HIV transmission in Dehong prefecture, Yunnan province / 中华预防医学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To uncover the transmission patterns of the HIV epidemic in Dehong prefecture.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The reviewed case reports, data of sentinel surveillance, testing and special survey were analyzed by SAS 8.0 program. The transmission patterns were modeled by utilizing data including sizes of the whole population and the high risk groups, high risk behavior data from 1989 to 2007, and the population index such as sex ratio and fertility rate.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>In 2005, case reports showed the proportion of people infected with HIV through sexual contact was 39.1%, and 46.9% in 2006. Among 1636 cases reported between January 1 to September 20, 2007, the proportion of people infected with HIV through sexual contact was 52%. From 1989 to 2007, the proportion of HIV infection among drug users was declining, while HIV infection through sexual contact was rising after standardizing the population tested/surveyed. The Asian Epidemic Model has shown that the proportions of incident HIV infections through sexual transmissions were 50.6%, 52.3% and 52.7% respectively from 2005 to 2007. Correspondingly, the proportions of incident cases by injecting drug user were 48.9%, 47.2% and 46.7% respectively during this period. Moreover, the Workbook method has shown that, among adults living with HIV in 2007, 50.3% were infected through injecting drugs and 48.4% through unsafe sexual activity.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The rapid rise in HIV infections through injecting drug in Dehong prefecture has been initially curbed. HIV epidemic has already witnessed a change from predominantly through drug injecting-related activity to an almost equally fuelled epidemic by sexual and drug-related transmission.</p>