Prediction of epidemic tendency of schistosomiasis with time-series model in Hubei Province / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province,so as to provide the theo?retical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis. Methods The time?series auto regression integrated moving av?erage(ARIMA)model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013,and to predict the shot?term trend of infection rate. Results The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95%confidence inter?nals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly. Conclusion The time?series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy,and could be used for the short?term forecasting of schistosomiasis.