Risk prediction values of different score models for cerebral infarction after transient ischemic attack / 吉林大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the predictive values of ABCD,ABCD2 ,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN score models for the patients with high-risk transient ischemic attack (TIA)to develop to cerebral infarction in short and long term. Methods The ABCD, ABCD2 , SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN scores of 235 cases of TIA patients were retrospectively analyzed.The incidence of cerebral infarction was followed up for 7 d and 1 year, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC)was drawn to calculate the area under curve (AUC)to assess the accuracy of the score models,and compared with the original model and the relative risk (RR)value was calculated.Results The 7 d-incidence and 1 year-incidence of cerebral infarction in the 235 TIA patients were 9.36 % and 20.43%.The AUC of ABCD,ABCD2 ,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN models for 7 d were 0.70,0.74,0.67,and 0.62.The AUC of 1 year were 0.62,0.62,0.64,and 0.65.Compared with the orginal models,the RRs for 7 d of ABCD score model of the TIA patients in low,middle,and high risk groups were 0.09,0.92,and 0.72;the RRs of ABCD2 score model were 0.49,0.59,and 0.65;the RRs of SPI-Ⅱ score model were 0.58,0.87,and 0.55;the RRs of ESSEN score model were 0.11,0.18,and 0.55.Conclusion ABCD,ABCD2 ,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN score models can be used to assess the risk of cerebral infarction after TIA in Chinese population.The ABCD2 score model is of great value for short-term risk prediction,and the ESSEN score model is more value for long-term risk prediction.