Establishment of nomograms to predict shrinkage modes of primary breast tumor after neoadj uvant chemotherapy / 吉林大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the clinical variables associated with the shrinkage modes of primary breast tumor in women after neoadj uvant chemotherapy (NAC ), and to develop a nomogram for predicting non-concentric shrinkage mode(NCSM).Methods Sixty-one women with pathologically proven solitary invasive ductal carcinoma (ⅡA-ⅢC)were recruited. Breast specimen was prepared with PMSS, and residual tumors were microscopically outlined,scanned and registered by Photoshop CS 5 software.The 3D model of residual tumors was reconstructed with 3D-DOCTOR 4.0 software to evaluate the shrinkage mode.17 factors such as age and body mass index and menopausal status were chosen as independent variables,and the clinic-pathologic shrinkage mode was considered as dependent variable. A Logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram. Results Primary tumor stage,lymph node down-staging, PR and mammographic malignant calcification before NAC were independent predictors of clinic-pathologic shrinkage mode (β1.538,OR4.656,95%CI1.414-15.328,P=0.011;β1.555,OR4.735, 95%CI1.082-20.722,P=0.039;β-1.707, OR0.181, 95%CI0.044-0.741,P = 0.017;β- 1.405, OR3.808, 95% CI0.06 - 0.998,P = 0.048, respectively ). The nomogram predicting the risk of NCSM showed a good concordance index(0.869),and its conformity of mean absolute error was 0.039. Conclusion Based on the clinicopathological findings of primary breast tumor, a nomogram to predict shrinkage modes after NAC in breast carcinoma patients is constructed.The statistical tool is helpful for individually selecting the patients who can be treated with BCT after NAC.