THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF AGE DISTRIBUTION OF MORTALITY OF CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE. The Analogy of the Exponential Curve, Y = aebx / 第二军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

There is a tendency that the mortality of cerebrovascular disease increases with age.The data from several communities was mathematically analogized, and the mathematical model of age distribution of cerebrovascular disease mortality was establishedby using the exponential curve, Y = aebx .The model gives an account of the law ofage distribution of cerebrovascular disease mortality.The increment rate and"the increment multiple constant"of the increment rate of cerebrovascular disease mortality withage are calculated by using its differential equation, dy/dx =abebx. The two numeralsmay be used as indexes for comparison with risk degree and distribution law of cerebrovascular disease among several communities.In addition, the model may be used to predict cerebrovascular disease mortality and to evaluate the effect of preventive and curative measures for cerebrovascular disease.