Prediction of trend between water environment pollution of D Lake and death rate of malignancy in population / 华中科技大学学报（医学）（英德文版）

ABSTRACT

Grey system analysis method was used to study the correlation between water pollution in D Lake area and death rate of malignancy with death rate of malignancy as effect sequence and a variety of water pollution index as factor sequence. On the basis of grey correlation analysis, grey system predication model was established for death rate of malignancy in population in D Lake area including GM(1, N) model for death rate of malignancy [MR(t+1) = (9.9987E1 + 5.0001E2 + 10.8994E3 + 1.1114E4 + 165.1029) x e(-0.0070t) - 9.9987E1 - 5.0001E2 - 10.8994E3 - 1.1114E4] and GM(1, 1) model for related factors [E1(t+1) = 52.1214 - 46.9468e(-0.0058t), E2(t+1) = 4.6114 - 4.5664e(0.0015t), E3(t+1) = 1.1389 - 1.1212e(0.0065t), E4(t+1) = 554.5867 - 549.8006e(0.0016t)], and the trend of death rate of malignancy from 2000 to 2010 was predicted.