Study on establishing risk index scoring for predicting perioperative mortality risk in aged patients undergoing non-neurologic and non-cardiovascular surgery / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To develop a risk index scoring for predicting perioperative mortality risk in aged patients undergoing non-neurologic and non-cardiovascular surgery.Methods A total of 11 144 inpatients aged ＞65 years old undergoing non-neurologic and non-cardiovascular surgery in the People's Hospital of Peking University from December 2012 to March 2016 were selected and divided into the death group and survival group.The following variables were compared between the 2 groups:general data,comorbidities,preoperative laboratory tests and operation anesthesia.A multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed on the risk factors for perioperative death in this group.The Bootstrapping method was performed for conducting internal validation.The parameters weighing of risk index scoring was established by correcting the partial regression coefficient of equation.Results The perioperative mortality was 1.0％ (111 cases).Eight independent predicting factors were obtained by the regression analysis.Then the risk index scoring was defined:classification of the Association of American Physicians (grade Ⅰ:0 point;grade 1:3 points;grade Ⅲ or 1:4 points),BMI(＜24 kg/m2:0 point;＞24 kg/m2:-1 point),renal insufficiency(1 point),chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(3 points),diabetes needing insulin treatment(2 points),preoperative hypoalbuminemia (1 point),preoperative hyponatremia (1 point) and general anesthesia (1 point).The patients with risk scores＜6 points were classified as low risk,patients with risk score 6-7 points were classified as intermediate risk and those with risk score＞ 7 were classified as high risk.The actual predicting risk of perioperative death in high risk patients ＞10％.The perioperative mortality risk index exhibited better diagnostic recognition ability (c-statistic=0.878).Conclusion The perioperative mortality risk of aged patients undergoing non-neurologic and non-cardiovascular surgery can be predicted by the risk index scoring,which can help to screen the high-risk individuals of perioperative death in order to give more carefully perioperative management.