Application of gray model in predication of brucellosis incidence in Anyang City, Henan Province / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To predict incidence trend of brucellosis in Anyang,Henan Province,so as to provide basis for instituting aimed preventive management.Methods To construct gray model (GM) according to incidence and rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2004 to 2015,and predict the incidence rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2016 to 2018.The data of brucellosis in Anyang were from the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System for Disease Control,China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,the population data were from Anyang Bureau of Statistics.Results The GM (1,1) had good accuracy in predicting and test,the posterior error ratio (C) =0.32,and the probability value (P) =0.99.The model could be used for extrapolating prediction.The actual incidence rate was compared with the predicted value,the value was basically consistent,fit effect was good.The predictive morbidity of brucellosis was 2.92/105,3.12/105 and 3.43/105 from 2016 to 2018 in Anyang,the incidence showed an increasing trend.Conclusions The GM (1,1) has high precision for predicting incidence of brucellosis.We need to take into account the epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases and social factors in actual practice.