External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence
Radiation Oncology Journal
; : 139-146, 2018.
Artigo
em Inglês
| WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
| ID: wpr-741939
Biblioteca responsável:
WPRO
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predicted 10-year IBTR risk based on an IBTR! 2.0 nomogram score of 10% were assigned to groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. We also plotted calibration values to observe the actual IBTR rate against the nomogram-derived 10-year IBTR probabilities.RESULTS:
The median follow-up period was 73 months (range, 6 to 277 months). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.607, showing poor accordance between the estimated and observed recurrence rate. Calibration plot confirmed that the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram predicted the 10-year IBTR risk higher than the observed IBTR rates in all groups. High discrepancies between nomogram IBTR predictions and observed IBTR rates were observed in overall risk groups. Compared with the original development dataset, our patients had fewer high grade tumors, less margin positivity, and less lymphovascular invasion, and more use of modern systemic therapies.CONCLUSIONS:
IBTR! 2.0 nomogram seems to have the moderate discriminative ability with a tendency to over-estimating risk rate. Continued efforts are needed to ensure external applicability of published nomograms by validating the program using an external patient population.
Texto completo:
Disponível
Base de dados:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Radioterapia
/
Recidiva
/
Mama
/
Neoplasias da Mama
/
Calibragem
/
Mastectomia Segmentar
/
Curva ROC
/
Estudos de Coortes
/
Seguimentos
/
Nomogramas
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo de etiologia
/
Estudo de incidência
/
Estudo observacional
/
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
Limite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Radiation Oncology Journal
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Artigo