The Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score: Prediction of Survival in Southeast Asian Patients

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION@#Numerous heart failure risk scores have been developed but there is none for Asians. We aimed to develop a risk calculator, the Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score, to predict 1- and 2-year survival in Southeast Asian patients hospitalised for heart failure.@*MATERIALS AND METHODS@#Consecutive patients admitted for heart failure were identified from the Singapore Cardiac Databank Heart Failure registry. The follow-up was 2 to 4 years and mortality was obtained from national registries.@*RESULTS@#The derivation (2008-2009) and 2 validation cohorts (2008-2009, 2013) included 1392, 729 and 804 patients, respectively. Ten variables were ultimately included in the risk model age, prior myocardial infarction, prior stroke, atrial fibrillation, peripheral vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, QRS duration, ejection fraction and creatinine and sodium levels. In the derivation cohort, predicted 1- and 2-year survival was 79.1% and 68.1% compared to actual 1- and 2-year survival of 78.2% and 67.9%. There was good agreement between the predicted and observed mortality rates (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic = 14.36, = 0.073). C-statistics for 2-year mortality in the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72), respectively.@*CONCLUSION@#We provided a risk score based on readily available clinical characteristics to predict 1- and 2-year survival in Southeast Asian patients hospitalised for heart failure via a simple online risk calculator, the Singapore Heart Failure Risk Score.