Evaluation and influencing factors of the short-term prognosis of severe alcoholic hepatitis with different underlying liver diseases / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the clinical features of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH) with different underlying liver diseases and the influencing factors for short-term prognosis. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 170 patients with severe AH who were admitted to Tianjin Third Central Hospital from August 2004 to August 2018, and according to the underlying liver disease, they were divided into group A (27 patients without liver cirrhosis), group B (52 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis), and group C (91 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis). Related scores were calculated, including Maddrey’s discriminant function (MDF) score, Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score, and Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS). An analysis of variance or the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of continuous data between multiple groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between multiple groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen out the independent influencing factors for the short-term prognosis of patients with severe AH. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves, and the log-rank test was used for comparison of survival rate between groups. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity, and specificity for each predictive model, and the DeLong method was used for comparison. ResultsThe 28-day survival rates of patients in groups A, B, and C were 88.9%, 80.8%, and 51.6%, respectively, with a significant difference between the three groups (χ2=1983, P＜0.001). The AUCs (95% CIs) of MELD score, MDF score, GAHS score, ABIC score, and CLIF-SOFA score were 0.584 (0.493-0.676), 0.696 (0.605-0.786), 0.644 (0.554-0.735), 0.745 (0.662-0.827), and 0.795 (0.726-0.863), respectively, in predicting 28-day mortality rate, and there were significant differences between CLIF-SOFA score and MDF, MELD, and GAHS scores (all P＜0.05); CLIF-SOFA score had a sensitivity of 79.0% and a specificity of 67.9% at the optimal cut-off value of 850 points in predicting 28-day mortality rate. Different underlying liver diseases (hazard ratio ［HR］=2.296, 95% CI 1.356-3887, P=0.002) and hepatic encephalopathy (HR=1.911, 95% CI 1.059-3.449, P=0.031) at disease onset were risk factors for 28-day prognosis. ConclusionPatients with severe AH with different underlying liver diseases have different clinical features and short-term prognoses. Different underlying liver diseases and hepatic encephalopathy at disease onset are closely associated with the 28-day prognosis of patients with severe AH. CLIF-SOFA score can predict the 28-day prognosis of patients with severe AH.