COVID deaths in South Africa: 99 days since South Africa's first death

Background. Understanding the pattern of deaths from COVID-19 in South Africa (SA) is critical to identifying individuals at high risk of dying from the disease. The Minister of Health set up a daily reporting mechanism to obtain timeous details of COVID-19 deaths from the provinces to track mortality patterns.Objectives. To provide an epidemiological analysis of the first COVID-19 deaths in SA.Methods. Provincial deaths data from 28 March to 3 July 2020 were cleaned, information on comorbidities was standardised, and data were aggregated into a single data set. Analysis was performed by age, sex, province, date of death and comorbidities.Results. SA reported 3 088 deaths from COVID-19, i.e. an age-standardised death rate of 64.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.3 - 66.8) deaths per million population. Most deaths occurred in Western Cape (65.5%) followed by Eastern Cape (16.8%) and Gauteng (11.3%). The median age of death was 61 years (interquartile range 52 - 71). Males had a 1.5 times higher death rate compared with females. Individuals with two or more comorbidities accounted for 58.6% (95% CI 56.6 - 60.5) of deaths. Hypertension and diabetes were the most common comorbidities reported, and HIV and tuberculosis were more common in individuals aged <50 years.Conclusions. Data collection for COVID-19 deaths in provinces must be standardised. Even though the data had limitations, these findings can be used by the SA government to manage the pandemic and identify individuals who are at high risk of dying from COVID-19

Trends and inequities in amenable mortality between 1997 and 2012 in South Africa

Background. Amenable mortality comprises causes of death that should not occur with timely and effective healthcare. It is commonly used to assess healthcare performance. It could also be used to assess the effectiveness of the pending National Health Insurance (NHI) in South Africa (SA), but to do this, the level and distribution of amenable mortality are required using a local list of amenable causes. Objectives. To establish an amenable cause-of-death list appropriate for SA and to determine the levels, trends, geographical distribution, population group differences and international comparisons of mortality amenable to healthcare. Methods. A local list of amenable causes of death was developed with input from public health and disease-specific medical experts. The Second SA National Burden of Disease estimates were reclassified into amenable mortality. Analyses of age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) and amenable mortality proportions were conducted by province and population group between 1997 and 2012. Excess mortality in relation to the best- performing province and population group was also analysed. ASDRs for SA were compared with those of European Union (EU) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Results. The local list of amenable conditions contained 45 causes of death. There were large disparities in amenable mortality between provinces and population groups, which did not attenuate over time. There was an average annual percentage increase in amenable ASDRs, but when HIV/AIDS was excluded from the analysis there was an average annual decrease of 1.12%. In the post-peak HIV/AIDS period between 2008 and 2012, an annual average of 207 810 amenable deaths could have been saved if all provinces had the same ASDR as the Western Cape. SA's ASDR was 2.6 and 2.2 times higher than that of the worst-performing EU and OECD country, respectively. Conclusions. This is the first study known to the authors that has established a local amenable mortality list and described the epidemiology of amenable mortality in SA. Amenable mortality could be used as an indicator of the performance of the pending NHI over time and, in combination with other indicators, could identify areas of the health system that require improvement. Benchmarking could also quantify gaps in health system performance between geographical regions and indicate whether these are reduced with time

Where do Children Die and what are the Causes? Under-5 Deaths in the Metro West Geographical Service Area of the Western Cape; South Africa; 2011

BACKGROUND:Accurate child mortality data are essential to plan health interventions to reduce child deaths.OBJECTIVES:To review the deaths of children aged etlt;5 years during 2011 in the Metro West geographical service area (GSA) of the Western Cape Province (WC); South Africa; from routine data sources.METHODSA retrospective study of under-5 deaths in the Metro West GSA was done using the WC Local Mortality Surveillance System (LMSS); the Child Healthcare Problem Identification Programme (Child PIP) and the Perinatal Problem Identification Programme (PPIP); and linking where possible.RESULTS:The LMSS reported 700 under-5 deaths; Child PIP 99 and PPIP 252; with an under-5 mortality rate of 18 deaths per 1 000 live births. The leading causes of death were pneumonia (25%); gastroenteritis (10%); prematurity (9%) and injuries (9%). There were 316 in-hospital deaths (45%) and 384 out-of-hospital deaths (55%). Among children aged etlt;1 year; there were significantly more pneumonia deaths out of hospital than in hospital (144 (49%) v. 16 (6%); petlt;0.001). Among children aged 1 - 4 years there were significantly more injury-related deaths out of hospital than in hospital (43 (47%) v. 4 (9%); petlt;0.001). In 56 (15%) of the cases of out-of-hospital death the child had visited a public healthcare facility within 1 week of death. Thirty-six (64%) of these children had died of pneumonia orgastroenteritis. CONCLUSIONS:Health interventions targeted at reducing under-5 deaths from pneumonia; gastroenteritis; prematurity and injuries need to be implemented across the service delivery platform in the Metro West GSA. It is important to consider all routine data sources in the evaluation of child mortality

Emerging Trends in Non-Communicable Disease Mortality in South Africa; 1997 - 2010

OBJECTIVES:National trends in age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in South Africa (SA) were identified between 1997 and 2010.METHODS:As part of the second National Burden of Disease Study; vital registration data were used after validity checks; proportional redistribution of missing age; sex and population group; demographic adjustments for registration incompleteness; and identification of misclassified AIDS deaths. Garbage codes were redistributed proportionally to specified codes by age; sex and population group. ASDRs were calculated using mid-year population estimates and the World Health Organization world standard.RESULTS:Of 594 071 deaths in 2010; 38.9% were due to NCDs (42.6% females). ASDRs were 287/100 000 for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); 114/100 000 for cancers (malignant neoplasms); 58/100 000 for chronic respiratory conditions and 52/100 000 for diabetes mellitus. An overall annual decrease of 0.4% was observed resulting from declines in stroke; ischaemic heart disease; oesophageal and lung cancer; asthma and chronic respiratory disease; while increases were observed for diabetes; renal disease; endocrine and nutritional disorders; and breast and prostate cancers. Stroke was the leading NCD cause of death; accounting for 17.5% of total NCD deaths. Compared with those for whites; NCD mortality rates for other population groups were higher at 1.3 for black Africans; 1.4 for Indians and 1.4 for coloureds; but varied by condition.CONCLUSIONS:NCDs contribute to premature mortality in SA; threatening socioeconomic development. While NCD mortality rates have decreased slightly; it is necessary to strengthen prevention and healthcare provision and monitor emerging trends in cause-specific mortality to inform these strategies if the target of 2% annual decline is to be achieved