ABSTRACT
Little is known about the dynamics of fertility transition in South Africa; though recent studies have begun to shed light on demographic changes in the country. This study presents trends and patterns of fertility observed in a rural South African population. Various demographic and statistical techniques were used to examine fertility patterns in a population of 21;847 women in a rural KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) demographic surveillance area. These are compared with patterns seen in another South African rural population under demographic surveillance; and with data from the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey. Findings are interpreted in light of contraceptive use patterns and HIV prevalence in the population. In South Africa; the end of the fertility transition is now in sight. In rural KZN; where national fertility levels are highest; fertility has declined rapidly for about two decades and would have reached below replacement level in 2003. While fertility has declined rapidly among all women over age 18 years; fertility levels among adolescents have not changed in decades. Although most adolescents in rural KZN were sexually active (60 ); few had ever used contraception (20 ). High HIV seroprevalence appears to explain a small part of the fertility decline (12 ); however; this effect is likely to grow in the near future as the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues in South Africa. If the current trends continue in the future; below replacement fertility; together with high mortality due to AIDS; it could soon lead to negative natural population growth in rural South Africa