ARIMA model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region

Background: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence. Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models. Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box­Ljung test. The ARIMA (11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set. Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.

"It is just a lot to deal with": A qualitative study exploring the sexual and reproductive health needs of a sample of female sex workers in six locations in Southern Africa

The sexual and reproductive health of female sex workers in Southern Africa is particularly important, given the high prevalence of HIV among this population. This paper presents the results of a rapid assessment study conducted prior to the implementation of the "SRHR-HIV Knows No Borders" project in six Southern African countries. Trained interviewers interviewed 20 sex workers across 10 high migration communities. Data were analysed thematically. Participants were well informed about and were able toaccess preventive methods for STIs and pregnancy, although reports of condom failures were common. While sex workers found SRH services easily accessible, many reported experiences of stigma and discrimination when accessing them. Physical and sexual violence were common occurrences among participants, both from their clients and the police. In addition to addressing stigma within the healthcare and broader community, interventions could provide opportunities for those looking to exit the industry by providing skills training and microfinance support. (Afr J Reprod Health 2022; 26[5]: 72-80).

A model to promote the uptake of male circumcision as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low male circumcision prevalence settings

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remain the leading global burden of disease, especially in Southern Africa. As such, efforts to develop innovative preventive and curative measures continue to be a global priority. Of late, the World Health Organization recognised and recommended mass male circumcision (MC) as an adjunct HIV-preventive measure in 14 selected sub-Sahara African countries. However, despite efforts to promote the uptake of MC in these countries, the uptake remains significantly below set targets. Aim: The purpose of this article is to describe the process that was followed in developing, describing and evaluating a model to promote the uptake of MC as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low MC settings. Setting: The model is designed for all settings of high HIV and low MC prevalence. Method: A theory-generative, qualitative, exploratory, descriptive and contextual research design was used. The process involved four distinct steps, namely concept analysis, description of relationship statements, and description and evaluation of the model using the criteria of clarity, simplicity, generality, accessibility and importance. Results: The central concept was identified as 'promote the uptake of MC', and three integral constituents were identified for the process, such as transforming men's mindsets about MC, facilitating accessibility and utilisation of MC services, and maintaining a supportive social system. These formed the basis for the model. Conclusion: The model provides a framework of reference for healthcare providers in promoting the uptake of MC as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low MC settings