ARIMA model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region

Background: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence. Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models. Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box­Ljung test. The ARIMA (11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set. Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.

A review of the framework and strategy for disability and rehabilitation services in South Africa

Background: Rehabilitation is imperative for the successful integration of persons with disabilities into their social environments. The Framework and strategy for disability and rehabilitation services (FSDR) in South Africa, 2015-2020.was developed to strengthen access to rehabilitation services and ensure the inclusion of persons with disabilities in all aspects of community life. Despite the FSDR being commissioned, access to rehabilitation is a challenge for persons with disabilities and further compounded in rural communities. Objective: The study aimed to describe the barriers and facilitators that influenced the process of development, implementation and monitoring of the FSDR. Method: This qualitative study employed a single case study design. Data was collected through document analysis and in-depth interviews utilising the Walt & Gilson policy analysis framework that outlines the context, content, actors and process of policy development and implementation. In-depth interviews were conducted with twelve key informants (N=12) who were selected purposively for the study. Data obtained from the in-depth interviews were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Results: We found many factors that influenced the implementation of the framework. Actor dynamics, insufficient resources, the rushed process, poor record-keeping, inappropriate leadership, negative attitudes of staff members and the insufficient monitoring impeded the successful implementation of the framework. While positive attitude, mentorship and support amongst the task team facilitated the implementation process, albeit with challenges. Conclusion: There is a need to address implementation gaps so that the FSDR is responsive to the current rehabilitation needs of persons with disabilities in South Africa. Contribution: This study may inform future disability policy, and can be used as a tool to advocate for the rights for persons with disabilities

Gene and cell therapy in South Africa: current status and future prospects

South Africa has a high disease burden resulting from communicable and non-communicable diseases. Current therapeutic interventions rarely result in a cure and the associated lifelong treatment places a considerable strain on an overburdened health sector. Gene and cell therapies present novel alternatives to disease management, offering the promise of a single treatment and a lifelong cure. Although challenges remain, investment in the field has started to bear fruit, with a number of gene and cell therapeutics reaching the market in the past decade. To take full advantage of these developments, it is important that a proactive approach to nurturing appropriate human and material resources is adopted in the country

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation in South Africa: Current limitations and future perspectives

The growing need for haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is reflected in the increasing number of transplants performed globally each year. HSCT provides life-changing and potentially curative therapy for a range of pathologies including haematological malignancies; other indications include certain congenital and acquired disorders of the haematopoietic system, autoimmune conditions and hereditary diseases. The primary goals of HSCT are either to replace haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPC) following myeloablative chemotherapy or to cure the original pathology with allogeneic HSPCs. Success depends on optimal outcomes at various stages of the procedure including mobilisation of marrow stem/progenitor cells for harvesting from the patient or donor, long-term and sustainable engraftment of these cells in the recipient, and prevention of graft-versus-host disease in the case of allogeneic HSCT. Challenges in South Africa include high cost, limited infrastructure and lack of appropriately trained staff, as well as limitations in securing suitable haematopoietic stem cell donors. This review aims to provide an overview of HSCT and some of the challenges that are faced in the South African context

Traitements antipaludiques associés en Afrique: faut-il y croire?: résumé

La pharmacore ́ sistance constitue l'une des plus graves menaces pour la lutte antipaludique. En Afrique, l'efficacite ́desantipaludiques e ́ conomiquement abordables s'amenuise tre` s vite alors que les me ́ dicaments hautement efficaces onttendance a` couˆ ter trop cher. Or des strate ́ gies d'un bon rapport cout-efficacite ́ s'imposent pour prolonger la dure ́edevie utile des antipaludiques. Des observations faites en Asie du Sud-Est sur un traitement associant des dérivés del'arte ́ misinine a`delame ́ floquine indiquent un ralentissement du phe ́ nome` ne de pharmacore ́ sistance a` l'e ́ gard de cesdeux substances. D'ou` la possibilite ́ de trouver une solution au proble` me de la pharmacore ́ sistance en Afrique ou`denombreux obstacles s'opposent toutefois a` la mise en place efficace d'un traitement associe ́ . En effet, les taux detransmission sont relativement e ́ leve ́ s, une forte proportion d'infections asymptomatiques se produit chez des sujetssemi-immuns, les me ́ dicaments sont souvent utilise ́ s de fac ̧ on inopportune et sans informations suffisantes, les diagnostics de laboratoire font souvent de ́ faut et les services de sante ́ publique sont, en general, insuffisants en Afrique subsaharienne. En outre, le traitement associé coute relativement cher. Les auteurs examinent ici le traitement associe ́tel qu'il est applique ́ en Asie du Sud-Est, en relevant au passage les problèmes à résoudre si l'on veut l'adopter avecsucce` s en Afrique subsaharienne

Some aspects of sexual behaviour and the potential demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries

This review examines recent research on the influence of heterogeneity in sexual behaviour on the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); the aetiological agent of AIDS. Attention is focused on the potential demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries and how this is influenced by the structure of networks of sexual contacts (who mixes with whom); age-dependency in rates of sexual partner change and differences in the ages of female and male sexual partners. Analyses based on the construction of simple and complex mathematical models of the spread of HIV via heterosexual contact serve as a template for the interpretation of observed pattern and as a guide to the major aspects of sexual behaviour that govern the transmission dynamics of the virus. It is argued that much greater attention must be addressed to the quantification of patterns of sexual behaviour in defined communities; despite the many practical problems that surround data collection and interpretation