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Objective: To evaluate effectiveness of the precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 in Ningbo, Zhejiang province. Methods: Based on the incidence data of COVID-19 and case epidemiological survey report in Ningbo in December 2021, the incidence curve of COVID-19 was generated and a dynamics model was developed to estimate the case number of under different intervention measures. The basic reproduction number (R0) and real-time reproduction number (Rt) were calculated to evaluate intervention effect. Results: A total of 74 cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Ningbo as of 17 December, 2021. The R0 was estimated to be 4.3. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, the Rt showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on December 11 and 0.4 on December 14. The model fitting results showed that the actual case number was close to the estimated case number (76 cases) when the effectiveness of intervention was 90%. The number of cases decreased by 98.4% compared with that if no intervention was taken. Conclusion: The precise prevention and control strategies of dynamic zero COVID-19 have obvious effect, which can facilitate the rapid control of COVID-19 epidemic in Ningbo.
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Humans , Basic Reproduction Number , COVID-19/prevention & control , China/epidemiology , Epidemics , Incidence , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
Objective@#To understand the relations between high risk sexual behavior and HIV infection among MSM in ways of finding male partners in Ningbo.@*Methods@#A cross-sectional study was conducted in Ningbo between April and November in 2018. Data related to socio-demographics, ways of finding male partners, adoption of gay apps and sexual behaviors were collected by snowball method. Blood samples were drawn for HIV antibody testing. Classified data was evaluated by chi-square test. Related factors on HIV infection were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression.@*Results@#A total of 735 participants were included in this study. Ways of finding male partners would through gay apps (60.8%, 447/735), QQ/Wechat (32.3%, 237/735) and gay-places (6.9%, 51/735). Related information on high risk sexual behavior and HIV infection among gay apps users were found as: 16.8%(75) had sexual behavior once per week in the past 6 months, 41.8% (187/447) had multiple sexual partners, 12.1% (54/447) had unprotected anal intercourse in the last time, 52.3% (234/447) having had unprotected anal intercourse in the past 6 months. The overall HIV prevalence rate was 12.1%(54/447). Among the HIV cases who got infected within the two years, 68.6%(24/35) of them had used gay apps for less than two years. Results from the, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gay apps users were more susceptible to infected HIV than those who used the QQ/Wechat (OR=3.03, 95%CI: 1.30-7.07).@*Conclusions@#Gay apps was popularly known among the Ningbo MSM, and was associated with the high risk sexual behaviors and HIV infection. HIV control and prevention programs should be strengthened in the MSM population who used the gay apps. Related surveillance and intervention programs for MSM, who use the gay apps, need to be further reinforced.
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We investigated the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB),and analyzed its social influence factors in immigration city.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on PTB cases data extracted from the National Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between 2013 and 2015.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied to community based and town-based incidence data by SaTScan 9.1.1.The results were visualized by ArcMap10.2.A total of 12 109 PTB cases were reported in Ningbo with a decreasing trend in incidence rate and an increasing trend in proportion of floating population from 2013 to 2015.The male to female ratio was 2.07 ∶ 1 (8 162/3 947).All age groups were affected by PTB,but the incidence in 15-34 years age group and 65+ years age group were higher.Patients aged between 15 and 54 years accounted for 73.95 ％ of all cases.Most cases were farmers,housekeepers or unemployed,migrants and workers.There were six temporal-spatial clusters,of which the most likely clusters were in downtown and its surrounding areas,and the second likely clusters were in industrial parks.Compared with non cluster areas,proportion of floating population (t =2.88,P=0.01) especially immigrants from other provinces (t=7.46,P =0.00),and population density (t=3.37,P=0.00) in cluster areas were higher,while per capita green area was lower (t =-2.39,P 0.03).The downtown and its surrounding areas,industrial parks could be the future PTB combating regions.High population density and immigrants are associated with PTB clustering.
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We investigated the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB),and analyzed its social influence factors in immigration city.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on PTB cases data extracted from the National Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between 2013 and 2015.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied to community based and town-based incidence data by SaTScan 9.1.1.The results were visualized by ArcMap10.2.A total of 12 109 PTB cases were reported in Ningbo with a decreasing trend in incidence rate and an increasing trend in proportion of floating population from 2013 to 2015.The male to female ratio was 2.07 ∶ 1 (8 162/3 947).All age groups were affected by PTB,but the incidence in 15-34 years age group and 65+ years age group were higher.Patients aged between 15 and 54 years accounted for 73.95 ％ of all cases.Most cases were farmers,housekeepers or unemployed,migrants and workers.There were six temporal-spatial clusters,of which the most likely clusters were in downtown and its surrounding areas,and the second likely clusters were in industrial parks.Compared with non cluster areas,proportion of floating population (t =2.88,P=0.01) especially immigrants from other provinces (t=7.46,P =0.00),and population density (t=3.37,P=0.00) in cluster areas were higher,while per capita green area was lower (t =-2.39,P 0.03).The downtown and its surrounding areas,industrial parks could be the future PTB combating regions.High population density and immigrants are associated with PTB clustering.
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Objective To understand the epidemiology characteristics and survival status of HIV/AIDS patients with access to highly antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Ningbo during 2004-2015.Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among HIV/AIDS patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015.Life Tables were used to estimate survival rates,and Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test were used to describe the survival curves and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine predictors of mortality.Results Of the subjects,the median age when starting HAART was 35 years (IQR:27-45 years).Most of them were males,local residents,married,infected through heterosexual sexual transmission,and their baseline CD4 T cells counts were mainly ≤ 200 cells/μ 1,and most of them were at clinical stage Ⅰ (WHO).The cumulative survival rate was 96.75％ for the first year,92.36％ for the fifth year,91.87％ for the seventh year and 90.02％ for the tenth year.The risk of the mortality was 17.34 times higher for those aged ＞60 years compared with those aged ≤20 years (95％ CI:2.11-142.71),2.83 times higher for those at clinical stage ⅣV (WHO) compared with those at clinical stage Ⅰ (WHO) (95％CI:1.67-4.80) and 3.26 times higher for those with drug resistance compared with those without drug resistance (95％ CI:1.77-6.01).Blood transmission,lower CD4 + T cell level,BMI ＜ 18.5,unmarried were the risk factors for the mortality.Conclusions The effect of HAART was obvious in the HIV/AIDS patients in Ningbo,their survival rate was high.The finding indicated that it is necessary to strengthen the health care for old population and health education about AIDS prevention and control,and conduct large scale screening.Early discovery,early diagnosis,early treatment and improving treatment compliancy are still the effective ways to reduce the mortality.
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Objective To understand the epidemiology characteristics and survival status of HIV/AIDS patients with access to highly antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Ningbo during 2004-2015.Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among HIV/AIDS patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015.Life Tables were used to estimate survival rates,and Kaplan-Meier curve with Log rank test were used to describe the survival curves and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine predictors of mortality.Results Of the subjects,the median age when starting HAART was 35 years (IQR:27-45 years).Most of them were males,local residents,married,infected through heterosexual sexual transmission,and their baseline CD4 T cells counts were mainly ≤ 200 cells/μ 1,and most of them were at clinical stage Ⅰ (WHO).The cumulative survival rate was 96.75％ for the first year,92.36％ for the fifth year,91.87％ for the seventh year and 90.02％ for the tenth year.The risk of the mortality was 17.34 times higher for those aged ＞60 years compared with those aged ≤20 years (95％ CI:2.11-142.71),2.83 times higher for those at clinical stage ⅣV (WHO) compared with those at clinical stage Ⅰ (WHO) (95％CI:1.67-4.80) and 3.26 times higher for those with drug resistance compared with those without drug resistance (95％ CI:1.77-6.01).Blood transmission,lower CD4 + T cell level,BMI ＜ 18.5,unmarried were the risk factors for the mortality.Conclusions The effect of HAART was obvious in the HIV/AIDS patients in Ningbo,their survival rate was high.The finding indicated that it is necessary to strengthen the health care for old population and health education about AIDS prevention and control,and conduct large scale screening.Early discovery,early diagnosis,early treatment and improving treatment compliancy are still the effective ways to reduce the mortality.
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Objective To study the pathogenesis of Entamoeba gingivalis ( E^g .) and its relation to periodontal diseases.\ Methods Rats were treated with immuno\|inhibitor for one week and the neck of incisor teeth of the rats was bound with steel wire. They were randomly divided into three groups: the first group was infected by E^g . in the periodontal tissue, the second group was infected by symbiotic bacteria (s.b.),and the third group was given physiological saline as control.Observation on the periodontal inflammation was made for each group of rats, and the purulent secretion from periodontal abscess was examined for living pathogens.\ Results The incidence of periodontal diseases in rats infected by E^g . was higher than that of symbiotic bacteria group and that of control ( P