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In order to analyze the temporal distribution characteristics of human rabies in China and explore the incidence forecasting,R3.3.2 software were used to establish the optimal ARIMA model of monthly incidences from 2004 to 2015 in Chi-na.Then the monthly incidences from January to November 2016 were forecasted with the model and the prediction accuracy was evaluated.The annual incidences of human rabies in China were decreasing tendency since 2007,and the monthly incidence reached highly during August to October.The optimal model was ARIMA(2,1,1)(2,0,0)12and the mean absolute error (MASE)was 0.755.The mean relative error was 15.61% when predicting the incidences from January to November 2016.In conclusion,there exists seasonal variation for human rabies in China and ARIMA model can be applied for the short-term fore-casting.
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Objective To learn the timeliness and reasons for the delay in discovering outbreaks via a dengue fever outbreak in Zhejiang Province,and try to improve our disease monitoring system.Methods Epidemic and clinic data were collected by searching cases and epidemiological investigation,and clinic behavior of cases in dengue fever outbreak were described,then the risk factors involved in the delay in discovering outbreak were analyzed.Results Totally 46 cases were found in this outbreak,among which 36 (78.28％) cases were infected before.The onset date of the first case we found was on July 15 th,57 day before the outbreak confirmation.According to the results,95.65％ of cases see a doctor after their sickness,and the rate of three day hospital visiting was 93.36％ (42/46),among which the rate of three day hospital visiting before pathogen confirmation was 91.67％ (33/36),and there was no statistic significance in diagnostic rate before and after pathogen confirmation(P =1.00).Conclusion Cases in this dengue outbreak presented high and timely outpatient rate.Thus,the delay confirmation of dengue fever outbreak was caused by the low sensitivity of doctors in all levels of hospital.More training on dengue fever diagnosis for doctors should be carried out in the future to control and prevent dengue fever more efficiently.
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Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever outbreak in Shaoxing City,and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control.Methods A retrospective epidemiological investigation was conducted to search the patients by given definition.Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)was used for detecting the anti -dengue virus antibodies.The serum samples from patients were collected for dengue virus isolation and the positive samples were identified by RT -PCR.Breteau Index was carried out to monitor the density of mosquito larva. Results A total of 42 cases were found with no death reported.The symptoms mainly included fever (1 00%),fatigue (59. 52%),arthralgia(50. 00%),headache (47. 62%)and rash (38. 1 0%).The outbreak lasted for 71 days with the first case occurred in July 1 5 and the last in September 23.The peak was from August 30 to September 5. Thirty seven cases were located in Keqiao District and 5 cases were in Yuecheng District.The male/female ratio was 1 . 33∶1 .The age of cases ranged from 1 0 to 79 years old with the 40 -(1 9. 05%)and 50 -(1 9. 05%)age group making the largest proportion.The outbreak also showed family aggregation.IgM antibody and nucleic acid of dengue virus were detected from serum samples of 1 2 patients.The sequence of the isolation indicated that this outbreak was caused by dengue virus typeⅡ.Conclusion The imported cases,high density of mosquito vector and missed diagnosis might contribute to this outbreak.Developing a practical scheme for mosquito elimination,improving diagnostic capacity of medical staff and their consciousness of reporting could be important ways to control dengue fever.
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Pre-harvest sprouting of wheat is caused by a series of enzymes, in which alpha-amylase plays a key role. Thioredoxin (trx) is an important protein capable of reducing S-S to -SH. The authors transferred the anti-trxs gene into wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) cultivar Wanmai 48 in 2000 in order to obtain a transgenic line with low activities of trx and alpha-amylase in wheat seeds to enhance their resistance to pre-harvest sprouting. In this work, a pair of specific anti-trxs primers were used in PCR test to validate the transgenic plants in T4 lines. A pair of primers of a wheat actin gene cDNA and a pair of trxs gene primers were used in the reverse transcription PCR test to measure the relative content of trx mRNA in the transgenic positive lines. The experiments of pre-harvest sprouting were carried out to test the resistance to pre-harvest sprouting. The results showed that there were 13 positive lines with the anti-trxs gene among 18 transgenic lines. In the maturity stage, the 8 relative contents of the trx mRNA in the 13 positive lines were reduced evidently (P < 0.01). The trx mRNA was correlated with the sprouting parameters significantly (r = 0.7181) . 6 lines with low trx mRNA showed stronger resistance to pre-harvest sprouting during the period from 30 days after anthesis to 10 days after maturity. Compared with non-transgenic plant (Wanmai 48, CK), the average sprouting time of these lines was postponed by 2.7 days (P < 0.01), the sprouting ratio of seeds on spikes and the spike sprouting degree were reduced by 35.5% (P < 0.01) and 47.5% (P < 0.01), respectively. However, 25 days after maturity, the sprouting capacity of the positive lines recovered gradually, and no significant differences were found between them (P > 0.05) . Thus, it can be concluded that the wheat pre-sprouting was controlled effectively in some 00T89 transgenic lines as a result of the expression of anti-trxs gene.